PPG Insights

Quarter 2 2020 Market Overview It Was The Worst of Times, It Was The Best of Times

We hope that this letter finds you safe and healthy during these unprecedented times. We are deeply heartened by the renewed optimism we are seeing both socially and economically. Our front-line health care workers have risen to this incredible challenge and we are so proud of them. We truly hope this progress continues and we are able to see your smiling faces in the office soon.

Markets were able to show a similar resilience and staged a major recovery in the second quarter. After seeing the worst first quarter of performance in the history of the S&P 500, the second quarter was the best second quarter since 1938. As of 6/30, the S&P 500 is down a mere 3.1%, a far cry from -19.6% we saw in the first quarter of this year. Economic reopenings across the United States and the rest of the world, hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine, and continued stimulus from global central banks, including the Federal Reserve continue to give markets confidence we are making solid and sustainable progress.

The end of the first quarter marked the lows for markets so far in 2020 as new coronavirus cases in the U.S. began to peak in mid-April thanks to the historic economic shutdown. That peak and initial decline in new COVID-19 cases throughout April gave investors and markets hope that the economic shutdown would not last into the summer and the S&P 500 rallied materially as a result, gaining over 12% in April.

The rebound continued in May, as the spread of the coronavirus continued to slow, paving the way for economic reopenings in the U.S and abroad. By the end of May, all 50 states had at least partially reopened their economies which led to a stronger-than-expected economic recovery. Meanwhile, markets were supported by continued economic stimulus from both the Federal government, via unemployment checks and “PPP loans” to businesses, and the Federal Reserve, via bond purchases. The S&P 500 rallied more than 4% in May, while the Nasdaq Composite turned positive for 2020—a development that seemed almost impossible during the depths of the March declines. 

This rally took a bit of a breather in June as we saw cases pick up in a certain parts of the country. Some states, including Florida, Texas, Arizona and California saw coronavirus cases begin to increase mid-month, and as a result, volatility edged higher into the end of June. The market reaction was muted compared to the volatility in February and March as the increased case count has not put extreme stress on various state healthcare systems.

Looking forward, as we begin a new quarter and the second half of 2020, the macroeconomic outlook has improved substantially since March, and stocks have responded accordingly with a very strong rally off the March lows. But the last two weeks of June were a reminder that much uncertainty remains, and during the next several months we will learn whether the coronavirus outbreak will peak, and if the economic recovery we’ve seen since April can continue. Those factors, along with the increasing influence of politics given the November election, will impact markets in the months ahead.

So, as we start the second half of the year, there’s been a lot of progress on the economic and biological fronts, but a lot of uncertainty still remains. However, we can take comfort in the fact that there are still many tailwinds on these markets, including historic support and stimulus not only from the Federal Reserve, but also from every major global central bank. Additionally, global governments are stimulating their economies in ways that haven’t been seen since the end of World War II, and the global medical community is united in a historic effort to produce a vaccine for COVID-19.

We all know that past performance is not indicative of future results, but history has shown that a long-term approach combined with a well-designed and well-executed investment strategy can overcome periods of heightened volatility, market corrections, and even bear markets. And, we’ve seen that again so far in 2020. 

Bottom line, investors are currently facing a lot of unknowns as we begin the second half of 2020, but there are also powerfully positive forces supporting markets. We wrote in our Q1 Market Overview that it’s ok to be scared and it’s ok to be nervous. It’s human nature and that statement still stands. But Americans are resilient and we have seen that in spades in the first half of 2020. I, for one can’t wait to see that play out in the second half of the year.

Thank you all again for your support and the trust you place in us. We are still mostly working remotely but we are always available for you so please don’t hesitate to call with any questions or just to say hi. Please stay safe and enjoy the rest of the Summer.

May God bless us all.

Please see our more detailed market analysis of this overview below.

Quarter 2 2020 Market Analysis

2nd Quarter Market Performance Review – A Historic Rebound

The major U.S. stock indices all enjoyed a strong rebound and substantial gains in the second quarter, and just like in the first quarter, the tech-heavy Nasdaq notably outperformed the other three major indices. In the most recent quarter, that outperformance was due to large-cap tech companies being viewed as the longer-term beneficiaries from changing work and shopping trends in response to the pandemic, specifically “work from home,” cloud computing and online shopping. 

By market capitalization, small caps outperformed large caps in the second quarter, and that is what we’d expect given that the market rally of the past three months was partially driven by a sooner-than-expected economic rebound, as small caps are historically more sensitive to changes in economic growth compared to large caps. From an investment style standpoint, growth substantially outperformed value, yet again, because of strength in large-cap tech.

On a sector level, performance was the opposite of the first quarter, as all 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the second quarter with positive returns. Traditionally defensive sectors, those that are less sensitive to changes in economic activity such as utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare, relatively underperformed after outperforming in the first quarter, and again that’s historically typical when stock market gains are driven by expectations for improving economic growth.

Cyclical sectors, those that are more sensitive to changes in economic activity such as energy, consumer discretionary, and materials, outperformed in the second quarter along with the technology sector. Energy, the worst performing sector in the first quarter, was the best performing sector in the second quarter, thanks to a significant rebound in oil prices and growing expectations for a global economic recovery.

US Equity Indexes

Q2 Return

YTD

S&P 500

18.63%

-3.08%

DJ Industrial Average

16.33%

-8.43%

NASDAQ 100

29.07%

16.89%

S&P MidCap 400

22.59%

-13.01%

Russell 2000

24.87%

-12.98%

Source: YCharts

International markets also rallied in the second quarter as European and Asian economies re-opened, and those regions saw a consistent decline in new COVID 19 cases throughout the quarter. Emerging markets, whose economies are typically more sensitive to changes in expected global growth, modestly outperformed foreign developed markets and the S&P 500 thanks to a declining U.S. dollar paired with rising hope for a global economic rebound, following successful reopenings in Asia and parts of Europe.

International Equity Indexes

Q2 Return

YTD

MSCI EAFE TR USD (Foreign Developed)

15.16%

-11.07%

MSCI EM TR USD (Emerging Markets)

20.54%

-9.67%

MSCI ACWI Ex USA TR USD (Foreign Dev & EM)

17.15%

-10.76%

Source: YCharts

Switching to fixed income markets, the total return for most bond classes was again positive in the second quarter, as bonds joined gold in registering back-to-back positive quarterly returns so far in 2020. The leading benchmark for bonds, the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, saw positive returns for the seventh straight quarter. 

Longer-duration bonds outperformed those with shorter durations in the second quarter as global central bank commentary stated that rates would stay low for years to come, which anchored shorter duration bonds and in turn, increased the appeal of higher yielding, longer-maturity bonds.

Corporate bonds, in a sharp reversal from the first quarter, saw solidly positive returns in the second quarter thanks to optimism surrounding the economic reopening process combined with the Federal Reserve actively buying corporate bonds in an effort to ensure adequate liquidity. Investment-grade bonds outperformed high yield corporate bonds, due in part to that active buying from the Fed as well as lingering worries about how weaker companies would fare over the longer term as the global economy slowly reopens.

US Bond Indexes

Q2 Return

YTD

BBgBarc US Agg Bond

2.80%

6.14%

BBgBarc US T-Bill 1-3 Mon

0.02%

0.49%

ICE US T-Bond 7-10 Year

0.60%

11.15%

BBgBarc US MBS (Mortgage-backed)

0.24%

3.50%

BBgBarc Municipal

2.27%

2.08%

BBgBarc US Corporate Invest Grade

9.54%

5.02%

BBgBarc US Corporate High Yield

10.88%

-3.80%

Source: YCharts

3RD Quarter Market Outlook

What a difference a quarter can make.

We wrote that to you last quarter in response to the historic market volatility, and it’s true again three months later.

Markets enjoyed a historic rebound in the second quarter, thanks to an initial peak in coronavirus cases, continued government support and a quicker-than-anticipated economic recovery. Like markets, society also made a substantial rebound in the second quarter, as economies have at least partially reopened in all 50 states, people are starting to return to the office, families are taking summer vacations, and there’s even the hope for a return of sports and other cultural staples in the coming weeks and months. Indeed, we have come a long way from those panicked days of late March. 

But while we all welcome this progress, it would be a mistake to think uncertainty and market volatility can’t resurface. The outlook for the spread of the coronavirus is still unclear, as new cases hit record highs in late June, providing a somber signal that the virus will be with us, in one form or another, for some time to come. There is also a looming presidential election which could influence the markets as we move through the second half of this year.

Regarding the economy, while progress has been better-than-expected, it’s important to remember that the current level of economic activity remains far below the levels of a year ago. Despite the gains seen in the second quarter, there remains a long road ahead for the U.S. economy to return to pre-pandemic levels.

At Professional Planning Group, we understand the risks facing both the markets and the economy, and we are committed to helping you effectively maneuver through this challenging investment environment. Successful investing is a marathon, not a sprint, and even intense volatility like we experienced in the first half of this year is unlikely to alter a diversified approach set up to meet your long-term investment goals. 

Therefore, it’s critical for you to stay invested, remain patient, and stick to the plan, as we’ve worked with you to establish a unique, personal allocation target based on your financial position, risk tolerance, and investment timeline.

Finally, we thank you for your ongoing confidence and trust and please rest assured that our entire team will remain dedicated to helping you successfully navigate this market environment. 

Warmest regards,

Michael F. Dembro
Chief Investment Officer, PPG
Registered Representative, RJFS

Additional information, including management fees and expenses, is provided on Professional Planning Group’s Form ADV Part 2, available upon request or at the SEC’s public disclosure site, https://www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/Firm/108868. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

This market commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that's generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The NASDAQ-100 (^NDX) is a stock market index made up of 103 equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. ... It is based on exchange, and it is not an index of U.S.-based companies. The S&P MidCap 400® provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index, which is distinct from the large-cap S&P 500®, measures the performance of mid-sized companies, reflecting the distinctive risk and return characteristics of this market segment. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.

MSCI EAFE (Net Div) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the United States & Canada. As of June 2007 the MSCI EAFE Index consisted of the following 21 developed market countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. (Total Return Index) - With Net Dividends: Approximates the minimum possible dividend reinvestment. The dividend is reinvested after deduction of withholding tax, applying the rate to non-resident individuals who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. MSCI Barra uses withholding tax rates applicable to Luxembourg holding companies, as Luxembourg applies the highest rates. MSCI Emerging Markets (Net Div) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. As of December,31, 2010, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists of the following 21 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. MSCI Total Return Index: Measures the price performance of markets with the income from constituent dividend payments. The MSCI Daily Total Return (DTR) Methodology reinvests an index constituent's dividends at the close of trading on the day the security is quoted ex-dividend (the ex-date). With Gross Dividends and With Net Dividends are the two variant calculations of MSCI Total Return Indices. The MSCI ACWI ex U.S. index is a market-capitalization-weighted index maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and designed to provide a broad measure of stock performance throughout the world, with the exception of U.S.-based companies.

The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bill Index includes all publicly issued zero-coupon U.S. Treasury Bills that have a remaining maturity of less than 3 months and more than 1 month, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be fixed rate and non convertible. The Bloomberg Barclays Mortgage-backed Securities Index is a market value-weighted index which covers the mortgage-backed securities component of the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. The index is composed of agency mortgage-backed passthrough securities of the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae), the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) with a minimum $150 million par amount outstanding and a weighted-average maturity of at least 1 year. The index includes reinvestment of income. The Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index is a measure of the long-term tax-exempt bond market with securities of investment grade (rated at least Baa by Moody's Investors Service and BBB by Standard and Poor's). This index has four main sectors: state and local general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and prerefunded bonds. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt, is unmanaged, with dividends reinvested, and is not available for purchase. The index includes both corporate and non-corporate sectors. The corporate sectors are Industrial, Utility and Finance, which include both U.S. and non-U.S. corporations. The Bloomberg Barclays US CP High Yld Bond index covers all fixed rate, non-investment grade debt, including corporate (both US and non-US Industrial, Utility, and Finance), and non-corporate sectors. Also included, Canadian and Global Bonds-(SEC registered, and issuers in non-emerging market countries), original issue zeroes, step-up coupon structures, and 144-As. Exclusions are Pay-in-kind bonds, Eurobonds, debt issues from emerging market countries, structured notes with embedded swaps or other special features, private placements, and floating rate securities. Must be publicly issued, dollar denominated, non-convertible, rated high-yield or lower by at least two of the following: Moody's, S&P, or Fitch. Unrated bonds, although a small number, are included but must have previously held a high yield rating or been associated with a high yield issuer, and must trade accordingly. As well, there must be at least 1 year left to maturity, and an outstanding par value of at least $150 million.